We won't always understand God's timing, so we have to trust that it is best for us. Dude, dont you remember CueCat at all? As a matter of fact, Smith was prosecutedfor something else entirely: Fred now revealed that a year earlier [also in 1973] he had forged documents indicating approval of a loan guarantee by the Enterprise Company without consent of the other board members, specifically his two sisters and Bobby Cox, the Enterprise secretary. Just knowing that single trajectory of Moores, and none other, we would have educated differently, invested differently, prepared more wisely to grasp the amazing powers it would sprout. We may not understand, we may not see, But we must trust, have faith, and believe. If an hour of reflection seems like too much, try 10 minutes. Daily events can be hard to wrap your mind around in some cases. An element of crucialand to Hrlein, personalimportance in these interactions was the role of the research manager or team leader. When Hrlein spoke of the research done under his direction as our work, he used the possessive advisedly to convey a strong sense of his own participation. There are many books out there on self-reflection, self-awareness, and introspection, but we recommend the books below as resources to help you start your journey. One reason is that our form of energy, oil, is misunderstood by most people, including many of us in the petroleum industry. You can read books from the past about tech visionaries and note how many of them were spot-on in their beliefs about what would happen (TML is a great example, but far from the only one) but where a person would have been ill-advised to act on the correct forecasts. So how could we find the treasure thats hiding in plain sight? Only Apple can build apps for it. Online safety, security, ethics, and etiquette. It might be fairer to say that Edison was the very last first inventor of the electric light. It sounds like Facebook! Technology can be the knowledge of techniques, processes, and the like, or it can be embedded in machines which can be operated without detailed knowledge of their workings. But it was left to Eckert and Mauchly [16] several years later to rediscover and implement the conceptions of stored programs and conditional jumps, which had already been present in Babbages analytical engine [17]. She currently is working to introduce degree programs in energy engineering at Texas A&M U. Cell phones, computers, radios, watches, and many other devices rely for their success on an electronic oscillator that produces an output with a precise frequency to generate timing pulses and synchronize events. 2003-2023 Society of Petroleum Engineers, See More Stories by Christine A. Ehlig-Economides, Ehlig-Economides, C.A., and Halepaska, J.C.: A Numerical Study of Confined-Unconfined Aquifers Including Effects of Delayed Yield and Leakage,, Agarwal, Ram G., Al-Hussainy, R., and Ramey, H.J. it would have had nothing to do with Orkut (oops). Enough progress in one domain (particularly computing power), can sometimes make up for stasis in another domain. The right moment cannot be known exactly in advance, so attempts to forecast will typically be off by years or worse. Yet, it took until the mid-00s for the promise of smartphones to materialize overnight, as it were, a success which went primarily to latecomers Apple and Google, cutting out the previously highly-successful Nokia, never mind visionaries like General Magic. Its just nobody was paying attention to that. I think I had the most fun working in a small group in Anadrill on multilateral-well design, which became the subject of my SPE distinguished lecture.15 After that, I worked with Joe Mach to manage production enhancement for Schlumberger. We remember the successes, and see only how they were sure to succeed, forgetting the failures, which vanish from memory and seem laughable and grotesque should we ever revisit them as they fumble towards what we can now see so clearly. Survival alone is highly chancy, and founders can often see times where it came down to a dice roll.10 Like historical events in general (Risi et al 2019), the importance of an event or change is often known only in retrospect. How hard could it be? In a Governing . If you knew for certain that Facebook would be as huge as it was, what stocks, exactly, could you have invested in, pre-IPO, to capture gains from its growth? ChristineEhlig-Economides, through her eventful career, has been there when many breakthroughs were made that have created a step change in our understanding of the mechanisms that govern the recovery of hydrocarbons. The research manager had to be active in defining goals, in marshaling means and resources, and in assessing success or failure. This balances overall exploitation & exploration to progress as fast as possible, showing the usefulness of technological forecasting on a global level despite its uselessness to individuals. Even the major oil companies give lip service to the claim. After all, during a buildup, the downhole flow rate was rapidly approaching zero. Organizing a Reflection Paper 1 Keep it short and sweet. Wait for the Lord; be strong and take heart and wait for the Lord. Or look at computers: imagine an early adopter of an Apple computer saying everyone will use computers eventually! Yes, but not for another few decades, and in the long run, we are all dead. Where does this leave us? Its only rocket science., Uber/Lyft/DiDi: Taxis & buses. This presents a conflict between personal and social incentives. But it is by no means obvious that it was unripe for Babbages research and development effort, if only it had been conceived in terms of a more severely delimited objective: the construction of a working model. In this regard, it is amusing to note the exponential growth of conferences like NIPS or ICML20102019.). Was the technological power just not sufficient 30 years ago?, [On the Nintendo Power Glove, based on a VPL dataglove design:] 15, JL: Both I and a lot of other people really, really wanted to get a consumerable version of this stuff out. From the Paleolithic times to the Information Age, technology is ever so expanding and evolving alongside with us. Entrepreneurs, with their speculations and optimistic biases, serve as randomization devices to sample a strategy regardless of the conventional wisdom, which at that point may be no more than an information cascade; information cascades, however, can be broken by the existence of outliers who are either informed or act at random (misfits). 2. have new ideas and skills to do a better job. Such a device would not have been aimed at the then unattainable goal of economic viability; but its successful demonstration might, just conceivably, have greatly accelerated matters when the time was finally ripe. Timing Technology Overview Timers, counters, and clocks are a critical component in most embedded systems. A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective. God's timing is perfect, it's true; His ways are higher, beyond our view. (TML). The only time my timing was bad was when I requested a transfer to Venezuela to start up a reservoir-modeling consulting group in time to see the oil price plummet in 1997. You can see the smartphones come up again and again in TML, as the visionaries realize how transformative a mobile pocket-sized computer would be. Early PC history is rife with examples of the prescient failing. We wanted the reflections to be as close to the learning experience as possible, both in terms of the timing of the reflections and where the reflection would take place. It's frustrating to desire somethinga solution, position, experience, relationship, or possessionbut sense the Lord saying "no" or "not now.". Progress will happen and can be foreseen long before, but the details and exact timing are too difficult to get right, and the benefits of R&D is in laying fallow until the ripe time and their exploitation in unpredictable ways. Candidate-gene studies were done by every Tom, Dick, and Harry, but the methodology failed completely because sample sizes many orders of magnitude larger were necessary. In this case, the flowmeter acquires data while the well is flowing, which is what it is intended to do. Format and timing Fails to meet minimum page requirements Submitted late : Barely meets the 15 page minimum requirement. The fact is that each writer creates his precursors. A kind of definition of Value of Information: If you do not work on an important problem, its unlikely youll do important work. The benefit for someone like DARPA of a forecast like Moores law is that it provides one fixed trend to gauge overall timing to within a decade or so, and look for those dots which have lagged behind and become reverse salients.25 For an entrepreneur, the advantage of exponential thinking is more fatalistic: being able to launch in the window of time between just after technical feasibility but before someone else randomly gives it a try; if wrong and it was always impossible, it doesnt matter when one launches, and if wrong because timing is wrong, ones choice is effectively random and little is lost by delay. and less. An additional analogy from reinforcement learning is PSRL, which handles more complex problems by committing to a strategy and following it until the end and either success/failure. The speed of light imposes theoretical bounds on rates of information transfer, so that it was once reasonable to wonder whether these limits, in conjunction with physical limits to microminiaturization of switching and conducting elements, might give the biological system an irreducible advantage. But enough time has passed since 1988 to enable us to judge the basic truthfulness of the predictions and expectations held by the dreamers such as Nicholas Negroponte: they were remarkably accurate! There is no convenient CMPTR you can buy 100 shares of and hold indefinitely to capture gains from your optimism about computers. Conclusion. When they began failing in a cluster, information-wise, that was highly redundant. Reflection of light occurs when waves hit a surface that, instead of absorbing radiation, bounce the waves away from the surface. What does this analogy suggest? "They say, timing is everything. There were people playing around with controlling brain cells with light going back to the 1940s. The aim of this study was to investigate the practice and timing self-reflection by primary schools teachers, with the aim of encouraging the use of self-reflection to improve teacher's practice. Reverse salients are areas of research and development that are lagging in some obvious way behind the general line of advance. You cant imitate a successful entrepreneur, the time is past. In particular, VCs are trying to determine whether this founder will be able to create a compelling story around the company mission in order to attract great engineers, executives, sales and marketing people, etc. It was not much but it came at a critical time and kept us in business for another week. But to come very near to a true theory, and to grasp its precise application, are two very different things, as the history of science teaches us. She is internationally recognized for expertise in reservoir engineering, pressure-transient analysis, integrated reservoir characterization, complex well design, and production enhancement. Let me warn you, important problem must be phrased carefully. If we think about multi-level optimization systems & population-based training, and optimization of evolution like strong amplifiers (which resemble small but networked communities: Pavlogiannis et al 2018), that would suggest we should have a bias against both large and small groups/institutes/granters, because small ones are buffeted by random noise/drift and cant afford well-powered experiments, but large ones are too narrow-minded.30 But a network of medium ones can both explore well and then efficiently replicate the best findings across the network to exploit them. View 3 Samsung T7 Shield Check Price 4 Crucial X6 Portable SSD View 5 Western Digital My Book Check Price I had thought, at first, that he was as unique as the phoenix of rhetorical praise; after spending a little time with him, I felt I could recognize his voice, or his habits, in the texts of various literatures and various agesIf I am not mistaken, the heterogeneous pieces I have listed resemble Kafka; if I am not mistaken, not all of them resemble each other. Pity the Scientist Who Discovers the Discovered, ignoring both mail order & Internet all the way until bankruptcy in 2010, eBay sellers like us so much theyre making their own promotional materials, The most successful people I know believe in themselves almost to the point of delusion, Why did we wait so long for the bicycle?, minor technical glitches derailed vital deals, borrowed money from friends to pay his rent, ensuring that no one becomes the next Gates, a has-been 1980s PC maker and an obscure search engine, Thiels definite vs indefinite optimism, DARPA paradigm in fostering AI & computing, people in general appear to overexploit & underexplore. (One wonders if a 20-year forecast might be driven by anthropics: in an exponentially-growing field, most researchers will be present in the final generation, and so a priori one could predict accurately that it will be 20 years to AI. As we discussed earlier, optogenetics and expansion microscopy both begin from papers from other fields, some of which are quite old and which mostly had been ignored by other people. Consider the ill-fated eToys.com or Pets.com: was the investor right to believe that Americans would spend a ton of money online such as for buying toys or dogfood? And so, we see, in our world around half such attempts fail completely, and 5% or so go to the moon. Bible verses about God's perfect timing. The study is a descriptive one based on qualitative research. Bloomberg News. Imagine this: You wake up one day in a world without technology - all the computers on the planet just disappeared. The electric incandescent lightbulb was invented, reinvented, coinvented, or first invented dozens of times. Richard Hamming describes ripe time as finally enabling attacks on consequential problems22 Edward Boyden describes the development of both optogenetics & expansion microscopy as failure rebooting, revisiting (failed) past ideas which may now be workable in the light of progress in other areas23. End-users love cryptography, right? COWEN: Two last questions. The 3 Best Books on Self-Reflection and Introspection. He showed me that the families of type curves he was generating were hardly distinguishable as pressure change on log-log coordinates, but they showed considerable character when graphed as a pressure derivative. Want to read all 2 pages? The Educational Technology course is designed to prepare teachers for all different grade levels with skills, concepts and understanding among other skills to integrate technology in their lessons to enhance learning as well as to make learning more effective. Only then could the new technology claim to have drawn level with Babbages design ideas of a hundred years earlier. We tried something, or somebody else tried something, and it didnt work. Indeed, this would have around the Japanese boondoggle the Fifth Generation Project (note that despite Japans reputed prowess at robotics, it is not Japans robots who went into Fukushima / flying around the Middle East / revolutionizing agriculture and construction). Since someone wanting to try the business again might not pop up at the exact time desired, a VC might need to create one themselves by trying to inspire someone to do it. Lets imagine a different scenario, where instead you were confident that home robotics were about to experience a huge growth spurt. After taking some time to reflect on your learnings, you'll be ready to create a plan to sustain your technology practice in the school year to come. RFID chip timing systems accomplish this in a very elegant way. Virgin Atlantic: airlines are cool. Whatever the evidence, the fundamental question VCs are trying to answer is: Why back this founder against this problem set versus waiting to see who else may come along with a better organic understanding of the problem? But say that the market is wrongly pessimistic. A valuable outcome is a result that has practical importance for clinical or preventive medicine and, implicitly, commercial value for industry. In the U.S., about one-third of the oil is used as a feedstock for a great many materials and products we could scarcely imagine doing without, and the remaining oil is used for transportation. You could never design a bicycle theoretically. You cant possibly get a good technology going without an enormous number of failures. And then on the other hand, if a startup idea becomes debunked, and no one is willing to invest in it ever, that idea may be starved of investment long past its ripe time, and this means big regret. You should maintain a formal tone, but it is acceptable to write in the first person and to use personal pronouns. A typical reflection paper is between 300 and 700 words long. It is not always as easy a task as it sounds. In this sense, Hrlein might be said to have thoughtas Thomas Hughes has shown that Edison didin terms of reverse salients and critical problems. Many startups have a long list of failed predecessors who tried to do much the same thing, often simultaneous with several other competitors (startups are just as susceptible to multiple discovery as science/technology in general3). He saw a need for friendly and mutually supportive relations between industrial research and development organizations, academic institutions, and clinicians. They describe Heinrich Hrleins drug development programs & Thomas Edisons electrical programs as being strategically aimed at opportunities called reverse salients, taking necessary steps to solve bottlenecks which hold back the practical application of progress in areas. rife with examples of the prescient failing. I applaud comments from our current SPE President to consider changing the meaning of the acronym to Society for Professionals in Energy so that SPE can remain in the forefront of the energy business. The loan guarantee from General Dynamics raised our hopes and increased our spirits, but also increased the pressure to finalize the private placement. The greater part of a century had to elapse before the vacuum tube arrived on the scene. During that time, I became interested in the notion that petroleum engineers might be better educated with a broader scope, what I would call energy engineering. Yet both of these can be enablers for competitive advantage. His story is analogous to mine, I think, and both stories would have been vastly different had we never met. One of the most basic reasons to begin self-reflection in your daily routine is that it can assist you in making sense of daily events. o Activity Report: A day without Technology. Whatsoever thy hand findeth to do, do it with thy might; for there is no work, nor device, nor knowledge, nor wisdom, in the grave, whither thou goest. He had to intervene where necessary to minimize friction between chemists and medical researchers, an especially important task for chemotherapy as a composite entity. Thiel uses the example of New France/the Louisiana Territory, in which the projections of John Law et al that it (and thus the Mississippi Company) would be as valuable as France itself turned out to be correctjust centuries later, with the benefits redounding to the British colonies. Reflection can be valuable when the workgroup uses it to learn more about impact and to catalyze action toward a destination. It is a time for Muslims to deepen their connection to God and to practice compassion and kindness towards others. If 2020 has taught us anything, it's that the key is to stay nimble, adaptive, and be prepared for unexpected change. She has since been appointed to the Albert B. Stevens Endowed Chair in Petroleum Engineering at Texas A&M U. Ehlig-Economides has received numerous awards from SPE and was elected to the Natl. The use of lottery grants is one idea which has been proposed, to help break the over-exploitation fostered by peer review; the randomization gives disfavored low-probability proposals (and people) a chance. Huh. One guy will do most of the work. If the latter, how could IP or economics be fixed to more closely link intermediate contributions to the final result to more closely approach a fairer distribution like the Shapley value than contributions being commoditized, yielding last-mover winner-take-all dynamics?. Under such conditions, we could be in the presence of a unicorn and not know with certainty that it is one. I was still commuting to Connecticut on the weekends and really did not know what was going to transpire on my return. . He saw a need for government support of appropriate institutions, especially research institutes in universities. Use your time in wise and purposive ways , know the things you 've should do and should not . Again, the issue with adoption is that the timing is so damn hard. In recent times, corporate research has diminished, and that may be a bad thing: The changing structure of American innovation: Some cautionary remarks for economic growth, Arora et al 2020., One might appeal to the Kelly criterion as a guide to how much individuals should wager on experiments, since the Kelly criterion gives optimal growth of wealth over the long-term while avoiding gamblers ruin, but given the extremely small number of wagers an individual engages in, with a highly finite horizon, the Kelly criterions assumptions are far from satisfied, and the true optimal strategy can be radically different from a naive Kelly criterion; I explore this difference more in The Kelly Coin-flipping Game, which is motivated by stock-market investing., Thompson sampling, incidentally, has been rediscovered, PSRL (posterior sampling, see also Ghavamzadeh et al 2016) generalizes Thompson sampling to more complex problems, MDPs or POMDPs in general, by for each iteration, assuming an entire collection or distribution of possible environments which are more complex than a single-step bandit, picking an environment at random based on its probability of being the real environment, finding the optimal actions for that one, and then acting on that solution; this does the same thing in smoothly balancing exploration with exploitation. The auditor who went through the companys books concluded that it was entirely solventwhich isnt surprising, when you consider that the lands it owned in America now produce trillions of dollars in economic value. One could also say the same thing of China: countless European observers forecast that China was a sleeping giant which, once it industrialized & modernized, would again be a global power. And in 2019, with 2012 a distant memory, well, one could say something similar, just with larger numbers. What do the curves say? Christine Ehlig-Economides received a BA degree from Rice U. in math-science, an MS degree from the U. of Kansas in chemical engineering, and a PhD degree from Stanford U. in petroleum engineering. It wont have cut and paste. By and large, oil has only two purposes. Michie went on to point out that in a previous case, Charles Babbage, his work was foredoomed by it being an unripe time due to hardware limitations and represented a complete waste of time & money17. Directions: To better appreciate the influence and importance of technology to our daily lives, let us do an activity called "Timing Your Technology". A major benefit of R&D, then, is in laying fallow until the ripe time when they can be immediately exploited in previously-unpredictable ways; applied R&D or VC strategies should focus on maintaining diversity of investments, while continuing to flexibly revisit previous failures which forecasts indicate may have reached ripe time. (Academics invent ideas about computers, which then go into mass production for business needs, which result in exponential decreases in costs, sparking countless academic applications of computers, yielding more applied results which can be commercialized, and so on in a virtuous circle.) Explains how technology is transforming conventional methods of human life, from the way we grow our crops, to how we communicate with one another. Question Your Life: Naikan Self-Reflection and the Transformation of Our Stories - Gregg Krech. In recent years, I have been attracted back to academia. The organizational pattern that emerges more or less clearly from Hrleins lectures is closely associated with his view of the typical phases or cycles of development of research in chemotherapy or physiological chemistry. The Verges 2012 article on VR took a historical look back at the many failed past efforts, and whats striking is that VR was clearly foreseen back in the 1950s, before so many other things like the Internet, more than half a century before the computing power or monitors were remotely close to what we now know was needed for truly usable VR. I read a lot of things that might be forgotten because I think that theres a lot of treasure hiding in plain sight. The problem was that some tests never exhibited the correct straight line for analysis, although it was always possible to find an apparent oneone that would lead, in many cases, to completely erroneous results. Imagine it is 1965. Advances in technology have brought us online banking, smart cars, smart TVs, lightning fast computers, and the latest buzz: virtual reality. Will young petroleum engineers need to retrain themselves before the end of their careers? ): you will not be the next Bill Gates, because Bill Gates was not the first and only Bill Gates, he was, pace Stiglers Law, the last Bill Gates13; many people made huge fortunes off OSes, both before and after Gatesyou may have forgotten Wang, but hopefully you remember Steve Jobs (before, Mac) and Steve Jobs (after, NeXT). With so many disruptive technologies on the horizon, timing your move into each can make the difference between getting ahead of the competition and falling irreparably behind. The flow rate showed a very clear oscillation, and there was a concern that the meter had malfunctioned. stfu and watch for those who watching rn alam ko na pinagagawa din kayo ng sir/mam nyo nga ganito hahahahah But it didnt., Almost Wikipedia: Eight Early Encyclopedia Projects and the Mechanisms of Collective Action, Hill2013; Almost-Wikipedias and innovation in free collaboration projects: why did 7 predecessors fail?., Finding out these tidbits is one reason I enjoyed reading Founders at Work: Stories of Startups Early Days (ed Livingston2009; Introduction), because the challenges are not always what you think they are. Every Monday, they required Federal Express to prepay for the anticipated weekly usage of jet fuel. I ended up doing more work in Japan than anything else because Japan in general is so tech-smitten and obsessed that they just love it [VR]. In the 1980s, famed technologist Stewart Brand visited the equally-famed MIT Media Lab (perhaps the truest spiritual descendant of the MIT AI Lab) & Nicholas Negroponte, publishing a 1988 book, The Media Lab: Inventing the Future at M.I.T. Ed Boyden on Minding your Brain (Ep. 64): BOYDEN: One idea is, how do we find the diamonds in the rough, the big ideas but theyre kind of hidden in plain sight? Technological developments can be foreseen but the knowledge is largely useless because startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing. It connects users to International Business Machines (IBM), UNIX, Linux, Open Virtual Memory System (OpenVMS), and Hewlett Packard (HP) applications from their desktops. We were talking about the past: VR wasnt talked about for a long time, right? My PhD adviser at Stanford was Professor Henry J. Ramey Jr., one of the all-time giants in reservoir engineering, and especially in well testing. He had to publicize the companys successesa necessity for what was ultimately a commercial enterpriseand act as liaison between company laboratories and the academic and medical communities. Major oil companies give lip service to the claim spirits, but not for another week, value... Going without an enormous number of failures everyone will use computers eventually social.! Know the things you & # x27 ; s perfect timing every Monday, they required Federal Express to for... Taking a reinforcement learning perspective after all, during a buildup, the downhole timing your technology reflection showed! Risky and require optimal timing wasnt talked about for a long time, right some! Computers on the weekends and really did not know what was going to transpire on my return reinvented coinvented! Uses it to learn more about impact and to use personal pronouns but also increased pressure... Wrap your mind around in some cases or team leader there was concern. 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Icml20102019. ) reflection can be valuable when the workgroup uses it to learn more about impact and use. Enough progress in one domain ( particularly computing power ), can sometimes make up for stasis another.
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